The devastating earthquakes that struck Turkey and Syria on February 6, 2023, killing tens of thousands and causing massive destruction, also sparked widespread debate online — not only about the disaster itself, but about whether it had been predicted in advance.
Days before the earthquake, a Dutch researcher named Frank Hoogerbeets posted a tweet that later went viral.
On February 3, 2023, Hoogerbeets wrote that “sooner or later” a magnitude 7.5 earthquake could occur in parts of Turkey and surrounding regions. However, the statement did not include a specific date, exact location, or precise timing.
Social Media Attention After the Earthquake
After the powerful earthquakes struck on February 6, Hoogerbeets’ earlier tweet gained global attention. Following the disaster, he posted another message expressing sympathy and referencing his earlier statement, writing:
“My heart goes out to everyone affected by the major earthquake in Central Turkey. As I stated earlier, sooner or later this would happen in this region.”
His comments quickly spread across social media, with many people wondering whether he had successfully predicted the earthquake.
The organization he is affiliated with, Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGEOS), had also posted messages about possible seismic activity. However, these posts mentioned only general possibilities and did not provide a scientifically verified prediction of the specific earthquake.
Who Is Frank Hoogerbeets?
Frank Hoogerbeets is a Dutch researcher associated with SSGEOS, an organization that studies planetary alignments and proposes possible links between celestial movements and seismic activity.
However, he is not recognized as a seismologist by the mainstream scientific community, and his methods are not considered scientifically established.
What Science Says About Earthquakes
Earthquakes are explained through well-established scientific research conducted by organizations such as the United States Geological Survey (USGS), universities, and geological institutes.
According to these authorities, earthquakes occur when tectonic plates beneath Earth’s surface move and release built-up stress along faults. This sudden release of energy causes the ground to shake. Scientists emphasize that earthquake prediction, in terms of exact timing, location, and magnitude, is not currently possible.
Can Earthquakes Be Predicted?
While Hoogerbeets and SSGEOS claim planetary alignments may influence earthquakes, scientific experts say there is no evidence supporting this idea.
Organizations such as the USGS have clearly stated that earthquakes cannot be predicted with certainty. Instead, scientists can only estimate the probability of earthquakes occurring in certain regions over long periods.
As the USGS explains: “We do not know how, and we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. USGS scientists can only calculate the probability that a significant earthquake will occur in a specific area within a certain number of years.”
Why His Prediction Is Considered Vague
Experts say Hoogerbeets’ statement was too broad to qualify as a scientific prediction. Earthquake-prone regions like Turkey frequently experience seismic activity, and saying an earthquake may occur “sooner or later” does not meet scientific prediction standards.
The Scientific Consensus
While Hoogerbeets’ tweet gained attention after the disaster, scientific experts agree that there is currently no proven method to predict earthquakes in advance. Instead, earthquake science focuses on monitoring risks, improving preparedness, and reducing damage when earthquakes occur.
