La Nina and El Nino are two of the most important climatic phenomenons which majorly impact the weather around the world. Though they are linked to each other, but in reality, they are each other’s opposites. El Nino brings warmer temperatures while La Nina brings cooler temperatures. In the weather, both of them cause significant changes including heavy rains, hurricanes, etc. Recently, the weather departments around the world have warned that in 2024, due to La Nina, the weather will be impacted globally. So, in this article, we will look at how La Nina is related to El Nino and how much will it affect the world.
What Is La Nina?
According to the National Ocean Service, La Nina is also referred to as El Viejo or Anti-El Nino because it has the opposite effect of El Nino. On the weather, La Nina has a cooler effect on the weather, during which the trade winds become stronger than usual. Also, it pushes more warm water towards Asia. In other words, it is a phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, the natural climatic pattern that affects the tropical Pacific Ocean. During the La Nina year, the winter season is cooler than normal in the North and warmer than normal in the South. Also, during this, the ocean waters along the Pacific coast become colder than normal, which is rich in nutrients.
What Is El Nino?
Opposite to the La Nina phase, during El Nino, the trade winds become weaker. It is also a phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle which makes the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean warmer than normal. During this, the warm water is pushed back to the east, mostly towards the west coast of the Americas. Further, during the El Nino phase, the warm water causes the Pacific jet stream to move to the south of its actual position. This makes the weather conditions warmer and dryer than usual.
What Is El Nino-Southern Oscillation?
In simple words, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is also called the ENSO cycle. It is a climate pattern that majorly happens because of changes in the ocean temperatures and winds in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Around the world, these changes can have severe effects such as more rain, thunderstorms, droughts, and flooding. In the ENSO cycle, La Nina and El Nino are included but, they have opposite effects. However, they do not happen on a set scheduled time and are very difficult to predict. When they occur in a year, they change the climate in tropical as well as subtropical areas. Also, in the environment, Southern Oscillation happens along with changes in ocean temperatures.
Are Both Phases of the ENSO Cycle Related To Each Other?
Yes, El Nino and La Nina are related to each other because they both are the phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. It is a natural climate pattern which greatly impacts the tropical Pacific Ocean. Though they both are related and have a major impact on the weather, but actually, they are the opposites of each other. As explained above, they both have opposite effects on the temperatures, with El Nino having a warmer-than-usual impact whereas La Nina has a cooler-than-usual impact. However, both phases can have a global impact on ecosystems, wildfires, economies, and many other things.
What Is The Frequency Of El Nino and La Nina?
La Nina and El Nino are the opposite phases of each other but have a significant impact on the tropical Pacific Ocean which in turn, affects the weather globally. Typically the phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation occur every three to five years. However, it can range between two to seven years. Typically, La Nina lasts for one to three years whereas the El Nino phase of the ENSO cycle lasts for nine to twelve months in a year.
How To Detect El Nino And La Nina?
There are many ways through which the opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation can be measured. They can be detected by keeping a check on the changes in the ocean temperatures, atmosphere, and winds in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here are some ways that can be used for the detection of El Nino and La Nina:
Oceanic Nino Index
It is used to measure the deviations from the normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It looks at the average temperature of the surface water over a three-month rolling period and compares it to the normal temperature for the time. Further, this helps the officials in tracking if the water is cooler or warmer than usual, which in turn helps them in determining the occurrence of El Nino and La Nina. When the ONI shows a value of +0.5 or greater, then the happening of El Nino is likely. On the other hand, if it shows a value of -0.5 or lower, it seems that La Nina will happen.
Tracking the wind patterns
The next way to detect La Nina and El Nino is by tracking the wind patterns and most precisely, the trade winds. Trade winds usually go from east to west across the Pacific Ocean. If the winds are weaker then the occurrence of El Nino is likely and if the winds are stronger, then it results in the happenings of La Nina.
Southern Oscillation Index- The next step by which you can detect El Nino and La Nina is by measuring the Southern Oscillation Index. This is used to track the difference in the air pressure in the tropical Pacific Ocean, between the eastern and western sides. If the index comes out to be positive, then it is likely La Nina will occur. However, if the SOI comes out to be negative, then it implies the happening of El Nino.
There are some other ways also through which the detection of these phases can happen such as keeping a close observation of the unusual weather. If there are heavy rains or droughts out of nowhere, it can indicate at the happening of La Nina and El Nino.
Is La Nina Winter Coming In 2024?
Many weather officials have recently warned that La Nina winter is coming in 2024. For the United States of America, this phase of the ENSO Cycle will significantly impact the weather because it is a natural climate pattern that influences the global weather marked by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Last winter, in the US, was the warmest on record, because El Nino influenced it. Though La Nina is not here yet, there is more than a 60 per cent chance that it will start occurring in November 2024. In the United States, La Nina can have a bigger impact on the winter weather though it is not the only thing that affects the weather in a particular season. The latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows that the occurrence of La Nina is very likely this year but it could also have rough and unpredictable weather at times.
How Will be The Northern Part of the US During La Nina?
If the La Nina phase starts in November 2024, larger portions of northern America are expected to become wetter and cooler than usual, especially the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. It will help in fighting against the dryness and the drought that the area of the Midwest is currently experiencing. Also, it will curb all the water-related problems that the northern region is dealing with. This year’s winter pattern will completely flip the pattern from last year as the Southern part experienced more rain and the north was dry. For the Pacific Northwest, the winter will be cooler than normal and could result in more snow. Also, Northern California will also be wetter and cooler, as compared to last year’s winter.
What Will be the Impact of La Nina in the Southern Part?
On the contrary to the Northern part of the US, La Nina will have a warmer-than-usual effect in the South. This year’s winter season is likely to be warmer than normal across the Southern part of America along with dry and drought conditions worsening the situation. For the region of Southern California, this year’s winter season is expected to be drier and warmer than the average temperature which is completely normal in La Nina. But, due to this, wildfire can also happen and it will become very important for the area to receive some rain in the next few months. According to a forecast by the NOAA, the southern part of the US, the eastern coast, eastern Great Lakes, northern Alaska, and New England will have warmer temperatures.
What Will be the Impact of La Nina on Agriculture?
As mentioned earlier, this winter will be cooler for some parts whereas warmer for others, causing severe impacts on the weather. Due to this, many other things will be affected simultaneously and one of these is agriculture. Because La Nina can lead to unusual rainfall and dry conditions, agriculture could be harmed. When there is not enough rain, the crops could dry out and farmers might face the situation of a drought. On the other hand, more rain than normal could damage the crops, making the harvesting difficult.
Will the Fisheries and Marine Life Be Affected?
Yes, if the occurrence of La Nina is likely to start in November 2024, marine life will be majorly affected because just like agriculture, they also depend upon the weather conditions. La Nina can be a threat to the fisheries because changes in the ocean temperature can disrupt the balance of marine life. It will affect the distribution as well as the availability of fish species. Due to the shift in the ocean temperature, some fishes will find it difficult to survive and others might develop or thrive in the new conditions.
How Can La Nina Affect the Global Temperature?
The happening of La Nina in 2024 can lead to a temporary decrease of approximately 1/10th of a degree Celsius in the average surface temperature globally. This will create a cooling effect which will be due to the changes in the patterns of the ocean as well as the atmosphere. Though it might only have a short-term effect on Earth’s temperature, but it is essential to consider that cooling is not permanent and will change when La Nina shifts.
Can There Be More Hurricanes In The La Nina Phase?
The La Nina phase of the ENSO cycle can make the conditions of hurricanes worse by creating a scenario that helps in the formation of storms. It is predicted that the Northern region will get cooler and wetter this year and the South will be dry and warmer than normal. This means that the northern area could experience more hurricanes. In addition, it can lead to less wind shear which means a change in the direction and speed of the wind. This means that the hurricanes will grow stronger and more powerful, affecting the communities more severely.
What Will Be La Nina’s Impact On The Economy?
Because the La Nina phase will greatly affect the weather conditions, it will also simultaneously have an adverse effect on the economy. As mentioned earlier, it can create conditions of floods and hurricanes which can damage the infrastructure. If the infrastructure of a country or state is damaged, it leads to costly repairs and economic losses. Further, flooding and hurricanes can strain the already existing buildings and houses which can lead to maintenance challenges.
Can La Nina Force The People To Displace?
The phase of La Nina will make the winter season cooler than usual for some regions which will lead to severe weather events such as hurricanes, floods, thunderstorms, and much more. Due to this, the people of the affected area could be forced to leave their houses in order to protect their lives. They may lose their houses in this situation which will result in a crises-like scenario. As mentioned earlier, the northern part will experience more wet conditions this year in the winter, so they should prepare themselves for such conditions as anything can happen.
What Will the Rainfall Pattern be in the La Nina Phase?
Around the world, the La Nina phase of the ENSO cycle will have a different rainfall pattern. It has been predicted that the northern region of the United States will be wetter and the southern will be drier. For Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, higher than normal rainfall is predicted with reduced rainfall in central Asia. Further, for northern Brazil, it is predicted that wetter-than-normal conditions will prevail whereas eastern and central Pacific coasts will experience drier conditions.
